Betting on sports ‘futures’ is an enjoyable and potentially profitable way to wager, but there are several potential risks that can lead to losses. Here’s a rundown of things to avoid:

Don’t bet at the first place you look: In other words, shop around for the best price. This is essential to all aspects of sports betting, but especially important with futures wagers. You’ll find more disparity between prices from book to book on futures than any other betting proposition. From a theoretical standpoint, a little work can yield much better value. From a practical standpoint, that means a higher payout should you win. The reason for this is that individual sportsbooks’ aren’t as worried about what the other guys are doing as they are with most other bets. Once the futures “market” is set books move the lines almost exclusively on their own financial position. The market simply doesn’t respond as quickly to futures wagers as it does to individual game lines so it is essential to do the extra work to get the best price on your proposition.

Don’t try to pick the winner in a competitive marketplace: This may sound sort of counter intuitive since the general idea of betting on futures is to determine the actual winner but it’s really not. Like everything else, its essential to always be mindful of the value you’re getting. In a futures market with several legitimate contenders at the top the price offered is seldom high enough to properly compensate for the risk you’re assuming. Here’s an example: in a hypothetical NCAA hoops tournament Duke is +200 to win the national championship. They’ve certainly got a shot, but at a payback of only 2/1 its hard to justify a wager at this point with the potential for so many interceding events that can make a championship more problematic. Such events as injuries, a tough tournament draw or even just going into a slump at the wrong time can happen to any team but when you bet a higher priced team–a ‘dark horse mid major at 15/1 for example–you’re getting “compensation” for assuming the “risks” of betting on a proposition with so many unknown variables.

In mathematical terms, we’re simply not being offered odds on a favorite that offer a good value in comparison with the ‘true odds’ of the event occurring. Let’s say we bet Duke at +200 to win the NCAA tournament. If we could magically play the NCAA tournament over 100 times, would Duke come out on top more than 33 times? If not, they’re a poor value at the price. At a higher price, I might be interested but at +200 the value is simply not there.

Note that the more competitive the market, the more difficult it is to find good value on a favorite. In a smaller field, or in a field with one dominant competitor it can be easier. For example, say the UFC were to have a tournament involving heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and three male figure skaters. Even if Lesnar was slightly injured, or not at the top of his game he’d essentially have a 100% chance of beating the smaller, effeminate men who are untrained to fight. If a book installed Lesnar as a -1000 favorite in this spot, it could still be considered a good value. It’s never easy to risk a lot to win a little, but from strictly a mathematical standpoint it makes sense.

Don’t try to make a huge profit with little risk: Sports betting provides few opportunities to make a ‘big killing’. It may happen occasionally, but even the big payouts when it occurs doesn’t make chasing big longshots a good value. If you’re serious about sports betting it is crucial to maintain your focus on the underlying numbers and look for value at all times. If you want to take a longshot at a huge jackpot, play the lottery but don’t try to do it at a sportsbook.

On a more theoretical level, a big price alone is no way to justify a wager. The concept of value works the same at the bottom of the barrel as it does at the top: make sure the price you’re getting on an underdog accurately reflects their “true odds” of winning.

Don’t bet one sided props: Sometimes sports books will offer silly bets just to get publicity or in some cases just to be funny. While there may be life on other planets, the ‘true odds’ of a Martian being named to President Obama’s cabinet wouldn’t justify a +5000 line that it would occur.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sportsbooks and betting odds portal sites. He lives in Southern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a kangaroo. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.

The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May. This is a race that many people follow and try to handicap even if theyre not typically horse racing enthusiasts. Understanding race horses is hard work, and a discipline unto itself.

Despite the complexity of understanding horse racing, there are a few basic rules that can help the novice watch the Kentucky Derby with a greater degree of enjoyment. Until recently, the Derby was a race dominated by the favorite. In the 1970’s great horses like Secretariat and Seattle Slew blew away the field but since Spectacular Bid’s winning run in 1979 there have been only a couple of favorites to win the big race. While a serious horse player might not want to categorically dismiss the popular favorite, for the horse racing novice this is a helpful way to narrow down the field.

So why has the favorite done so poorly in recent years? One theory suggests that it is a by-product of the hype surrounding the race. Novice horse fans back the favorite, making it more of a popularity contest than anything else. The reality is that the horse with the most hype is not always the best horse.

Post position is also something that the horse racing neophyte should pay attention to. Obviously post position number 1 is an advantage relative to the outer ones, but it hasnt been a strong edge over the other inside positions. Twelve Derby winners have had the #1 position going into the race (the most of any position) but positions #4 and #5 have had ten winners each. In terms of percentages, positions #1 through #5 have yielded 49 winners (or just under 40%). On the other hand, the outermost positions (#11 through #20) have had just 16 winners (or just under 13%). It is important to note that theres not always that many horses in the race, which would obviously result in few higher posts winning. Still, concentrating on horses with favorable post positions is another way to pare down a field that you know little about.

A couple more factors to consider are the horse’s gender and breeding lineage. A couple of simple rules can be applied here–first of all, forget all horses that aren’t intact males (geldings and fillies). Over 90% of all Derby winners have been intact males. Then, eliminate any horse that wasn’t born in the state of Kentucky. This stipulation is starting to change, but for the time being is a good rule to apply for the novice. Over 80% of all Derby winners have been born in Kentucky.

Don’t forget to consider dosage index numbers. These are a complex mathematical formula that measures a horse’s breeding lineage plus his past performance. You want to look for horses with a dosage index of 4.00 or less–over half of Derby winners have met this criteria since dosage numbers came into common usage in the mid 1980’s.

If you want to learn about horse racing in more depth, there are countless books available to introduce you to the subject. For a recreational fan who just wants to have a better understanding of the Kentucky Derby, these rules can help.

Ross Everett is a freelance sports writer specializing in casino gambling, entertainment and sports betting. He has appeared on a number of TV and radio programs offering strategies for successful NFL football betting. He lives in Northern Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and a pet llama. He is currently writing a biography of former NFL quarterback Jim McMahon.

If you are looking for a fresh way to celebrate your big day, a destination wedding could be right up your alley. Wedding destination packages are affordable and in some cases cheaper than a regular ceremony and reception. Here’s a list of the most popular locations to get you started on your dream wedding afar.

Tuscany, Italy

Everyone dreams of visiting Italy. Why not treat yourself and your hubby to be to a truly romantic and magical wedding in Tuscany? Be amidst fine wine and food, friendly Italians, and begin your happily ever after in pleasant harmony.

The Yucatan

Have an outdoor adventure and relax on the sandy beaches. All this is possible on a Yucatan destination wedding. You can even have a traditional Mayan wedding ceremony for a unique twist to your big day.

Maui, Hawaii

Everyone wants to go to Maui, so treat yourself and your guests to the destination wedding of a lifetime. Fun in the sun, inviting Hawaiian locals, resorts, and spas make Maui a favorite for many couples.

Las Vegas

Whether you are eloping to the Graceland Chapel or planning a full blown destination wedding, Las Vegas is a great place to exchange nuptials. There are bright lights, Vegas Shows, and lots of fun to be had.

Jamaica

For ritzy to rural, Jamaica has something for everyone, including you and your guests. Jamaica offers beautiful coastline, inviting locals, and top rate resorts. Want live music during your wedding? Jamaica has some of the liveliest music in the world, give them a listen.

Belize

Belize offers all types of water activities from snorkeling to scuba diving. It also appeals to the adventurer in everyone. The tropical rainforests of Belize are full of exotic animals and fresh water falls. If that’s not enough, check out the Mayan ruins.

Scotland

Scotland offers a vast history, melodic music, and galleries of art that will take your breath away. The beautiful country side is doused with old castles and cathedrals. While in Scotland, don’t forget to check out the Queens’ residence in Edinburgh, the Palace of Holyroodhouse.

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